Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 12.409865 14.220708 16.175131 18.437732 20.981265 23.748489 26.983172
2025-03-09 9.743877 12.191667 15.042075 18.591930 22.878636 27.871339 34.108901
2025-03-16 8.197333 10.859962 14.116286 18.364688 23.730918 30.250884 38.735669
2025-03-23 7.186157 10.016836 13.631951 18.544465 24.996316 33.125375 44.078437
2025-03-30 6.575562 9.573945 13.547316 19.135798 26.719437 36.567793 50.224225
2025-04-06 5.815344 8.827414 12.961730 18.968854 27.374504 38.602127 54.590890
2025-04-13 4.942062 7.816356 11.899955 18.024381 26.852185 38.967096 56.663520
2025-04-20 4.594976 7.528748 11.821736 18.436107 28.212224 41.937140 62.415946
2025-04-27 4.277822 7.248727 11.719391 18.784694 29.475519 44.806103 68.136235
2025-05-04 3.888925 6.814810 11.342013 18.678744 30.039922 46.673419 72.477714
2025-05-11 3.511323 6.359685 10.888735 18.410319 30.321550 48.112773 76.227317
2025-05-18 3.236790 6.047164 10.631277 18.419761 31.012181 50.171030 80.964416
2025-05-25 3.016446 5.812545 10.490424 18.619234 32.032796 52.812998 86.769412
2025-06-01 2.788029 5.541905 10.267444 18.665248 32.805645 55.105740 92.143123
2025-06-08 2.544489 5.218016 9.923474 18.474229 33.163286 56.739346 96.526586
2025-06-15 2.382879 5.029597 9.797977 18.642173 34.115536 59.350456 102.558342
2025-06-22 2.299610 4.982003 9.917392 19.240810 35.820960 63.248072 110.816542
2025-06-29 2.115026 4.717686 9.620019 19.071511 36.185418 64.942386 115.525923
2025-07-06 1.847517 4.259128 8.923196 18.122928 35.119711 64.181373 116.106020
2025-07-13 1.772236 4.189999 8.961119 18.536503 36.498608 67.616148 123.870374
2025-07-20 1.694635 4.108252 8.967160 18.886856 37.775294 70.920729 131.532223
2025-07-27 1.573017 3.918881 8.744674 18.780367 38.199793 72.749905 136.710177
2025-08-03 1.445113 3.702471 8.450088 18.510634 38.298720 73.998804 140.910895